Academy
Marcantonio Global Arsenal of Freedom Academy: Forecasting and Assessing Revolutionary Technology
Learn to scout, assess and match emerging technology to warfighter needs, using the public acquisition priorities the Department of War has published. Public, unclassified sources only.
Overview
Forecasting for acquisition speed
An 8-week online professional course.
It is built on Marcantonio Global's DTIaaS model, Defense Technology Innovation as a Service: a private advisory method to scout, assess, and integrate revolutionary technology. Marcantonio Global is a private company and has no role in the Department of War's acquisition transformation.
The five pillar names below are taken from publicly released Department of War documents, including Rebuilding the Arsenal of Freedom: Acquisition Transformation Strategy.
- Rebuild the Arsenal of Freedom: Rebuild the Defense Industrial Base
- Elevate and Empower the Acquisition Workforce to Rapidly Deliver Capability
- Maximize Acquisition Flexibility through Reduced Regulations and Process
- Develop High Performance Systems through Rigorous Enterprise Technical Execution Excellence
- Improve Lifecycle Risk Management
The published strategy calls on the workforce to collect and act on market intelligence about emerging and maturing technologies, to invest in predictive analytics for emerging threats and technology trends, to apply technology and manufacturing readiness assessments, to strengthen due diligence, and to replace lengthy analyses of alternatives with experimentation and demonstration of existing or emerging technology. This course teaches that work, with the evidence labeled and the channel kept proper.
- Readiness levels as forecasting inputs: Technology Readiness Level (TRL), Manufacturing Readiness Level (MRL), and Integration Readiness Level (IRL), used together.
- Signal scouting on public defense sources: SBIR/STTR topics and awards, broad agency announcements, commercial solutions openings, other transaction agreements and consortia, AFRL Advanced Research Announcements, and professional networks such as LinkedIn.
- Hype-versus-real discipline: every claim tagged Proven, Piloted, or Theoretical.
- Quantum and post-quantum readiness as a running case study.
- Mission matching: connecting a technology to an urgent or emergent operational need and to kill-chain gaps.
- Procurement-integrity ethics in every week: proper channels only.
- A capstone that is a usable work product: a technology forecast plus a rapid capability assessment memo.
Audience
Who this course is for
There is no formal prerequisite. Comfort with a basic spreadsheet helps. Classified information and controlled unclassified information are not used and are not permitted.
- Government acquisition, requirements, science and technology, and innovation-cell professionals, including program offices, portfolio and program executive staff, contracting and agreements officers, labs, and innovation units.
- Founders, chief technology officers, and business-development leads at startups and nontraditional defense companies who need to see how the Department of War evaluates maturity and fit.
- Investors and corporate-venture professionals focused on defense and dual-use technology.
- Consultants, systems engineers, and technical advisors who write technology assessments.
- Transitioning service members and veterans moving into defense innovation roles.
Government attendees: please confirm with your agency ethics official and training office before registering. Agency-funded seats follow your agency's normal training approval process. Marcantonio Global does not offer free or discounted seats to federal employees without written agency approval.
Outcomes
What participants will be able to do
- Explain how technology forecasting relates to the five pillars named in publicly released Department of War documents and the National Defense Strategy.
- Assess a technology's maturity using TRL, MRL, and IRL together, and state the evidence behind each rating.
- Build and interpret simple performance-trend and S-curve models, and express forecasts with explicit uncertainty ranges.
- Run a repeatable horizon scan using public, proper-channel sources.
- Separate hype from reality by grading claims as Proven, Piloted, or Theoretical and applying a due-diligence checklist.
- Match a candidate technology to an urgent or emergent operational need and identify a plausible acquisition pathway.
- Assess quantum and post-quantum readiness claims against published standards and realistic timelines.
- Apply procurement-integrity rules: use proper channels only, protect non-public and proprietary information, and recognize conflicts of interest.
- Produce a decision-ready technology forecast and rapid capability assessment memo.
Evidence
Proven, Piloted, Theoretical
Every claim in the course is graded with one of these labels. A high technology readiness level does not erase a thin manufacturing or integration record.
Proven
Demonstrated and documented.
Piloted
In trial or limited demonstration, not yet proven at scale.
Theoretical
Plausible, not yet demonstrated.
Syllabus
Eight weeks online
Each week is short recorded lessons, readings, one applied assignment, and one live session. An ethics checkpoint runs every week. Working estimate: 5 to 7 hours per week. The estimate will be checked with the founding cohort.
Week 1
Forecasting for the Warfighter
Why forecasting matters for acquisition speed. The National Defense Strategy and the five acquisition transformation pillars (based on publicly released DoW documents). Requirements-based versus solutions-based acquisition. Why forecasts fail: anchoring, hype, and vendor optimism. The Marcantonio Global scout, assess, and integrate loop. Procurement-integrity ground rules for the whole course.
Activity. Personal forecasting baseline: predict three technology milestones and record your confidence. Read the strategy introduction and pillar summaries. Sign the course integrity pledge.
Ethics checkpoint. What proper channels means, and what you may and may not share.
Week 2
Measuring Maturity: TRL, MRL and IRL
Technology Readiness Levels, Manufacturing Readiness Levels, and Integration Readiness Levels. Why a high TRL with a low MRL or IRL is a schedule risk. Technology readiness assessments and manufacturing readiness assessments in the Adaptive Acquisition Framework. The Proven, Piloted, and Theoretical evidence labels.
Activity. Rate three public technology descriptions on TRL, MRL, and IRL with cited evidence. Compare ratings with peers and reconcile the differences.
Week 3
Trends, S-Curves and Uncertainty
Performance metrics that matter to the mission: cost, time, range, power, and throughput per unit. Rates of progress. S-curves and technology substitution. Base rates and reference-class forecasting. Expert elicitation and data-driven methods. Stating ranges, with the evidence that would move the range.
Activity. Build a simple trend and S-curve model in a spreadsheet from a public dataset. Write a one-paragraph forecast with a confidence range and the evidence that would change it.
Week 4
Horizon Scanning and Signal Scouting
Building a scanning system. Public demand signals: SBIR/STTR topics and awards, broad agency announcements, commercial solutions openings, other transaction consortium announcements, AFRL Advanced Research Announcements, industry days, and requests for information. Supply signals: publications, patents, venture funding announcements, and conference demonstrations. Professional-network scouting on LinkedIn and in communities of practice. Weak signals and noise. Keeping a signal log.
Activity. Run a two-hour horizon scan on an assigned technology area. Submit a signal log of at least 10 sourced entries. Tag each entry Proven, Piloted, or Theoretical.
Ethics checkpoint. Public sources only. No solicitation of non-public source-selection or proprietary information. How to engage a contracting officer properly.
Week 5
Hype Versus Real: Claim Assurance and Due Diligence
Anatomy of an overclaim. Red flags: no test data, no independent validation, and lab results presented as field results. Evidence grading. Due-diligence areas the strategy names for investment review: mission alignment, company analysis, risk, compliance, performance metrics, and a transition plan. Independent technical validation.
Activity. Grade a set of public product claims. Write a half-page note on what evidence would move one claim from Theoretical to Piloted, or from Piloted to Proven.
Week 6
Matching Technology to Operational Need
Urgent and emergent operational needs. Kill-chain gaps and interoperability. Commercial preference and non-developmental items. Choosing a pathway: commercial solutions opening, other transaction prototype and follow-on production, SBIR/STTR, Middle Tier of Acquisition, or the Software Acquisition Pathway. Experimentation and demonstration in place of a long paper study. Integration and manufacturing risk.
Activity. Tabletop exercise. Given a fictional operational need, shortlist three candidate technologies from public sources, score fit, and recommend a pathway.
Week 7
Case Study: Quantum and Post-Quantum Readiness
Separating quantum computing, sensing, and communications by maturity. The post-quantum cryptography migration: NIST FIPS 203 (ML-KEM), FIPS 204 (ML-DSA), and FIPS 205 (SLH-DSA), together with NSA CNSA 2.0 guidance. Crypto inventory and harvest-now, decrypt-later risk. How to read a quantum vendor claim. Applying Proven, Piloted, and Theoretical in a fast-moving field. Each quantum and post-quantum claim is labeled Proven, Piloted or Theoretical.
Activity. Assess one public quantum or post-quantum claim end to end: maturity, evidence, timeline, and need match. Peer review.
Week 8
Capstone: Technology Forecast and Rapid Capability Assessment Memo
Writing for decision-makers. Bottom line up front. Structuring evidence. Presenting uncertainty honestly. Brief-out skills.
Activity. Submit the capstone. Give a 5-minute brief-out in the final live session. Peer and instructor feedback.
Capstone
Technology forecast and rapid capability assessment memo
Each participant picks one technology, using public information only, and produces both work products. Grading is pass or revise: evidence quality, honesty of the maturity labels, clarity of uncertainty, soundness of the pathway, and integrity compliance.
Technology forecast
2 to 3 pages
- Technology definition and mission-relevant performance metrics.
- Current TRL, MRL, and IRL with evidence, and a Proven, Piloted, or Theoretical label on each key claim.
- A trend or S-curve view with a 3- to 5-year forecast and a confidence range.
- A signal-log summary of demand and supply signals, all from public sources.
- What would change the forecast: the leading indicators to watch.
Rapid capability assessment memo
1 to 2 pages
- Bottom line up front: pursue, monitor, or pass.
- The operational need matched, and the expected warfighter impact.
- Maturity, integration, and manufacturing risks.
- A recommended acquisition pathway and the next proper-channel step, such as responding to an open commercial solutions opening, engaging through an industry day, or submitting to an SBIR/STTR topic.
- Alignment to one or more of the five acquisition transformation pillars.
- An integrity statement: all information is public or the participant's own. No non-public or proprietary data was used.
Certificate
Certificate of completion
Completers receive a certificate of completion for this 8-week online professional course, including the capstone technology forecast and rapid capability assessment memo.
This is to recognize that [Participant Name] has completed Marcantonio Global Arsenal of Freedom Academy: Forecasting and Assessing Revolutionary Technology, an 8-week online professional course offered by Marcantonio Global, including a capstone technology forecast and rapid capability assessment memo.
[XX] instructional hours (60-minute hours), attended live [dates]
The bracketed hours and dates are filled only after measured course hours exist.
Nino Marcantonio, Lead Instructor, Marcantonio Global
DoW Senior Strategic Technology Advisor
Certificate of completion only. This certificate recognizes completion of a non-credit professional course. It is not an academic credential, professional certification, license, government-recognized qualification, or accredited continuing education credit. Marcantonio Global is not an accredited continuing education provider and is not affiliated with any university, DAU, ISACA, PMI or ISC2. Acceptance of hours for any continuing education requirement rests with the learner's supervisor or credentialing body. This course is offered by Marcantonio Global and is not sponsored or endorsed by the Department of War or any U.S. government agency.
Hours may be submitted for DAWIA continuous learning points with supervisor approval. ISACA, PMI and ISC2 credential holders may be able to self-report hours under their body's rules. Marcantonio Global is not an accredited continuing education provider, and credit acceptance is decided by each supervisor or credentialing body.
Instructor
Lead instructor
Lead instructor: Nino Marcantonio, Founder, Marcantonio Global
DoW Senior Strategic Technology Advisor
This course is offered by Marcantonio Global and is not sponsored or endorsed by the Department of War or any U.S. government agency. Views expressed are the instructor's own.
He designs the course, leads the Week 1 and Week 8 live sessions, and signs certificates of completion. Pass or revise decisions, and every certificate, are made by the instructor.
Taking this course does not provide access to Department of War officials or any advantage in government contracting.
The course is unclassified. Participants use public information only. No controlled unclassified information and no proprietary vendor data.
Dates and tuition to be announced
The button opens the contact page at marcantonioglobal.com/contact. A message is a request for information, not a confirmed seat.
Prepared with AI agents working for Marcantonio Global and reviewed by MG.